Suchergebnisse

Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to introduce the Futures Triangle 2.0, a methodological advancement of the Futures Triangle method (Inayatullah, 2008), which better integrates the original method with Scenario Planning by visually representing scenarios against the three dimensions of the Triangle, i.e. pulls, pushes and weights.


Design/methodology/approach
The paper explains the theoretical rationale behind the creation of the method, outlines the steps required to use it in a futures workshop or in a futures research project with a step-by-step procedure and reports a case study of its application in practice.


Findings
The Futures Triangle 2.0 encourages a deliberate and systematic discussion on the three dimensions of the Futures Triangle in each scenario and on whether scenarios differ in these attributes. The method allows the foresight researcher/practitioner to capture the valuable tensions between weights on the past on one hand and pushes of the present/pulls of the futures on the other hand, and to make sure that the scenarios differ substantially in these three attributes.


Originality/value
The method integrates the Futures Triangle and Scenario Planning in an intuitive, easily reproducible and visually pleasant graphical procedure.

Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to formally introduce the future persona, a futures method to let scenarios come to life. A future persona is a scenario-specific fictional individual living in the future scenario (s)he is meant to depict. The paper provides a formal, systematic and clear step-by-step guide on how to create engaging and effective future personas after a scenario planning exercise.


Design/methodology/approach
After having introduced the future persona method, tracing it back to the customer persona method in user centered design (UCD) and differentiating it from previous uses of futures characters in the futures studies literature and in other domains, an example of the creation process of four future personas based on four scenario archetypes of the futures of work is provided, illustrated with pictures and discussed.


Findings
Future personas, with their narratives and graphical illustrations, are found to be particularly useful to convey scenarios to a target audience.


Practical implications
Futures personas can be used in a scenario planning exercise to increase the clarity of scenarios in the mind of scenario planners and to let scenarios be known inside an organization.


Originality/value
Future personas can substantially enrich scenarios, increasing their liveliness, playfulness and empathy.

We analyzed 30 pandemic films and developed a processual model to explain the social-level coping mechanisms to confront pandemics as portrayed in films. The model describes the underlying collective understanding of disease outbreaks. The model suggests that pandemic films divide the disease outbreak into three phases: emergence, transmission, and termination. Concurrently, three social processes tend to be activated to cope with the pandemic: healthcare, political, and public awareness. This model is used to compare the social imaginary reflected in films with the current COVID-19 outbreak. The resemblance of the model and the current outbreak suggests that fictional pandemic films may still follow our collective understanding of the pandemic dynamics. Four scenarios are suggested as road maps for futures and foresight practice concerned with future pandemic outbreaks.

PurposeThe aim of this study is to trace the factors that have contributed to the adoption and institutionalization of foresight practices within the Singapore Public Service, Government of Singapore.Design/methodology/approachThis study discusses the history of the adoption and institutionalization of foresight practices in the Singapore Government; this study has carried out content analysis of secondary literature and conducted 11 in-depth semi-structured interviews with elite informants.FindingsThis study finds that the adoption and institutionalization of foresight practices in the Singapore Government was brought about by a combination of five factors. The most foundational factor in our model is the role of institutional entrepreneurs, who drew upon the symbolic representation of Singapore's vulnerability to legitimize the use of foresight, thus resonating well with local technocratic groups to maintain steady economic progress. This study further argues that the underdevelopment of foresight in the local private and academic domains can be at least in part explained by the historical connotations of foresight that were uncovered.Research limitations/implicationsAs the findings are fruit of the authors' interpretation of the secondary literature/interview data, they require further triangulation by future research.Originality/valueThis study presents the interpretation of elite informants' accounts and historical documents to explain one of the most exemplar yet classified case studies of governmental foresight globally.

Because the input for Futures Studies is to a very high degree formulated as written words and texts, methods which automate the processing of texts can substantially help Futures Studies. At Shaping Tomorrow, we have developed a software system using Natural Language Processing (NLP), a subfield of Artificial Intelligence, which automatically analyzes publicly available texts and extracts future-relevant data from theses texts. This process can be used to study the futures. This article discusses this software system, explains how it works with a detailed example, and shows real-life applications and visualizations of the resulting data. The current state of this method is just the first step; a number of technological improvements and their possible benefits are explained. The implications of using this software system for the field of Futures Studies are mostly positive, but there are also a number of caveats.